Last year when we picked Nelco Ltd (click here for earlier detailed post on Nelco ltd) it
was still in transition mode and much action was pending for execution but we
had the faith in Nelco keeping in view its strong technical capabilities, the
scale of opportunity in Indian VSAT industry and its Tata parentage which
ensured strong brand image and easy availability of capital/funds. And after 1
year the sky is getting clear. We picked it around 110-120 last time and it is
now at 300 after one year and this is one of the best performer of my portfolio
in difficult last one year of stock market.
was still in transition mode and much action was pending for execution but we
had the faith in Nelco keeping in view its strong technical capabilities, the
scale of opportunity in Indian VSAT industry and its Tata parentage which
ensured strong brand image and easy availability of capital/funds. And after 1
year the sky is getting clear. We picked it around 110-120 last time and it is
now at 300 after one year and this is one of the best performer of my portfolio
in difficult last one year of stock market.
Lets’ first of all focus on its
financial performance this year. Nelco has shown stupendous performance both in
topline and in bottom line in FY-2018-19. Its topline this year has grown 27%
from 150 cr to 191 cr and the same has touched 51 cr in Mar-19 quarter from 39
cr in Mar-18. At this juncture I am more inclined towards growth in the topline
than bottom line because there is still vast scope of scale in VSAT industry in
India. So capturing the major chunk of the future scale will be the major
growth catalyst and this is exactly what Nelco is doing right now.
financial performance this year. Nelco has shown stupendous performance both in
topline and in bottom line in FY-2018-19. Its topline this year has grown 27%
from 150 cr to 191 cr and the same has touched 51 cr in Mar-19 quarter from 39
cr in Mar-18. At this juncture I am more inclined towards growth in the topline
than bottom line because there is still vast scope of scale in VSAT industry in
India. So capturing the major chunk of the future scale will be the major
growth catalyst and this is exactly what Nelco is doing right now.
It has invested quite a bit last
year in expansions as its gross assets/capital work in progress has touched 100
cr from 50 cr last year. I am sure that these investments are made for maritime
and aerospace connectivity because in Sep-18 its gross assets base including
capital WIP was 70 cr and it has crossed 100 cr now only after the approval of
maritime and aerospace connectivity by Indian government in Dec-18 (for which I
was waiting for long time). This expanded assets base is one of the reason
which has impacted its already good bottom line figures due to depreciation and
interest charges as it has taken debt to the tune of 34 cr to fund its expansions.
Still it has managed to grow the figure of PBT at 20 cr from 15 cr last year.
However I think the maximum benefit of the expansions done this year will
accrue in the next year and we’ll see high growth in top line but bottom line
growth will be even faster.
year in expansions as its gross assets/capital work in progress has touched 100
cr from 50 cr last year. I am sure that these investments are made for maritime
and aerospace connectivity because in Sep-18 its gross assets base including
capital WIP was 70 cr and it has crossed 100 cr now only after the approval of
maritime and aerospace connectivity by Indian government in Dec-18 (for which I
was waiting for long time). This expanded assets base is one of the reason
which has impacted its already good bottom line figures due to depreciation and
interest charges as it has taken debt to the tune of 34 cr to fund its expansions.
Still it has managed to grow the figure of PBT at 20 cr from 15 cr last year.
However I think the maximum benefit of the expansions done this year will
accrue in the next year and we’ll see high growth in top line but bottom line
growth will be even faster.
But the most important move is the
declaration of dividend by the company. They have declared Rs. 1.5 dividend
which is a significant move and it shows the confidence of the company in the
stability of the future growth and profits. Its dividend history was erratic
due to subdued performance in last 2 decades and last time it gave dividend was
way back in 2013 (50 paise). So this dividend is very important indicator of
the future growth. It has given great all round performance this year and I think
this will take its stock price to new orbits. Its current PE is around 30 which
for a company growing like Nelco is not expensive and we should see this
touching 40 and the same will get re-rated after the June-19 quarter results
and any other favorable regulatory and policy action.
declaration of dividend by the company. They have declared Rs. 1.5 dividend
which is a significant move and it shows the confidence of the company in the
stability of the future growth and profits. Its dividend history was erratic
due to subdued performance in last 2 decades and last time it gave dividend was
way back in 2013 (50 paise). So this dividend is very important indicator of
the future growth. It has given great all round performance this year and I think
this will take its stock price to new orbits. Its current PE is around 30 which
for a company growing like Nelco is not expensive and we should see this
touching 40 and the same will get re-rated after the June-19 quarter results
and any other favorable regulatory and policy action.
Its transformation phase started in
2016-17 after it sold its loss making automation business and shifted focused
on profitable VSAT business. But due to the dynamics of VSAT industry in India where
much action was needed at regulatory and policy front not much was in the hands
of Nelco even if it wanted to grow its business. Nelco needed to wait for some
important actions in external environment to settle some of the most pertinent
issues restricting the growth of satcom industry in India like Satellite
capacity/bandwidth was not available to Satcom industry in India even if they
wanted to grow their business, Internet connectivity in some high growth
sectors like marine and aerospace was not allowed. So for me, more than the
action in the topline and bottom line it was the action in the regulatory and
satellite capacity fronts which was more important.
2016-17 after it sold its loss making automation business and shifted focused
on profitable VSAT business. But due to the dynamics of VSAT industry in India where
much action was needed at regulatory and policy front not much was in the hands
of Nelco even if it wanted to grow its business. Nelco needed to wait for some
important actions in external environment to settle some of the most pertinent
issues restricting the growth of satcom industry in India like Satellite
capacity/bandwidth was not available to Satcom industry in India even if they
wanted to grow their business, Internet connectivity in some high growth
sectors like marine and aerospace was not allowed. So for me, more than the
action in the topline and bottom line it was the action in the regulatory and
satellite capacity fronts which was more important.
GSAT
satellites: Game changers by ISRO for India
satellites: Game changers by ISRO for India
As I have noted in the last blog
post on Nelco that affordable supply (New satellites) and corresponding high
demand (Marine/Aerospace/Remote areas) is the most significant factor for a new
technology/product to achieve widespread acceptability and growth. So this
year, as Government created the new supply avenues by launching new satellites
it has also created the scope for demand growth by allowing internet
connectivity in marine and aerospace sector and this has really opened the
doors of huge growth for Nelco.
post on Nelco that affordable supply (New satellites) and corresponding high
demand (Marine/Aerospace/Remote areas) is the most significant factor for a new
technology/product to achieve widespread acceptability and growth. So this
year, as Government created the new supply avenues by launching new satellites
it has also created the scope for demand growth by allowing internet
connectivity in marine and aerospace sector and this has really opened the
doors of huge growth for Nelco.
This year, ISRO has done some
serious work in creating the satellite communication capacity for India. ISRO
has launched GSAT-19 in June 2017, GSAT-29 in Nov 2018, GSAT-11 india’s
heaviest satellite launched in dec-2018 and GSAT-20 another heavyweight was
launched in Jan-2019. So by mid-2019, these
satellites will cover the entire nation and together they have the capacity for
100 Gbps internet capacity but this will provide more benefit to rural and
remote areas of India. As I have shared in the last post, the main motive behind
these satellites is creating fast reliable internet capacity in rural india. This
massive capacity will also support commercial and industrial applications like
ATM, Marine and aerospace connectivity, Oil and gas sector, mining, education
sector etc. India has huge ambitions for smart cities and without satellite
internet connectivity in smart cities is not possible especially keeping in
view the mission criticality of satellite internet. Similarly, IOT also needs
reliable satellite internet.
serious work in creating the satellite communication capacity for India. ISRO
has launched GSAT-19 in June 2017, GSAT-29 in Nov 2018, GSAT-11 india’s
heaviest satellite launched in dec-2018 and GSAT-20 another heavyweight was
launched in Jan-2019. So by mid-2019, these
satellites will cover the entire nation and together they have the capacity for
100 Gbps internet capacity but this will provide more benefit to rural and
remote areas of India. As I have shared in the last post, the main motive behind
these satellites is creating fast reliable internet capacity in rural india. This
massive capacity will also support commercial and industrial applications like
ATM, Marine and aerospace connectivity, Oil and gas sector, mining, education
sector etc. India has huge ambitions for smart cities and without satellite
internet connectivity in smart cities is not possible especially keeping in
view the mission criticality of satellite internet. Similarly, IOT also needs
reliable satellite internet.
So the supply of this massive
bandwidth will create the demand for VSAT in remote areas and other industrial application
like marine and aerospace. So many of Government’s public welfare and e-governance
initiatives like e-banking, e-health, e-governance aimed to grow rural India
was on hold due to lack of cheap and reliable internet connectivity in remote
and rural areas.
bandwidth will create the demand for VSAT in remote areas and other industrial application
like marine and aerospace. So many of Government’s public welfare and e-governance
initiatives like e-banking, e-health, e-governance aimed to grow rural India
was on hold due to lack of cheap and reliable internet connectivity in remote
and rural areas.
As I have explained in the old
post, in remote and tough terrains building of terrestrial communications is
very costly and not suitable for mass scale application. Satellite internet is
the best choice here as one satellite is enough to cover large area cost
effectively. Like, take the case of Indonesia, which has string of 13677
islands so instead of creating terrestrial infrastructure for telephony it has
launched dedicated satellite for telephonic communication in the country and
this has proved very cheap as compared to creating time consuming and costly
physical infrastructure.
post, in remote and tough terrains building of terrestrial communications is
very costly and not suitable for mass scale application. Satellite internet is
the best choice here as one satellite is enough to cover large area cost
effectively. Like, take the case of Indonesia, which has string of 13677
islands so instead of creating terrestrial infrastructure for telephony it has
launched dedicated satellite for telephonic communication in the country and
this has proved very cheap as compared to creating time consuming and costly
physical infrastructure.
Satellite
Internet can fight on cost
Internet can fight on cost
So we will see satellite internet
creating its own space and there may be a situation where it can give tough
fight to terrestrial internet on low cost. The biggest factor affecting the
cost of satellite bandwidth is not the cost of satellite but it is the high
costs of satellite launch. Like, for example, cost of satellite launch by Arianespace’s
rocket is around $100 million after subsidies. SpaceX due to its backward
integration offers the same at around $62 million and India’s ISRO is at $60
million and it is looking to reduce the cost even further and ISRO will launch
all of its future heavy satellite on its own.
creating its own space and there may be a situation where it can give tough
fight to terrestrial internet on low cost. The biggest factor affecting the
cost of satellite bandwidth is not the cost of satellite but it is the high
costs of satellite launch. Like, for example, cost of satellite launch by Arianespace’s
rocket is around $100 million after subsidies. SpaceX due to its backward
integration offers the same at around $62 million and India’s ISRO is at $60
million and it is looking to reduce the cost even further and ISRO will launch
all of its future heavy satellite on its own.
So due to heavy launch costs, the
focus was always on to create long life satellites in order to get the maximum
out of the launch costs and it was not possible to use new age technologies in
space communication instantly as the same is being used in terrestrial
communications like 3G/4G/5G. Further, the focus is always on reducing the
weight of the satellite as every KG costs big to launch. So it has resulted in
light weight space hardware and machinery which often creates problems in launching
and sometimes entire satellites is destroyed.
focus was always on to create long life satellites in order to get the maximum
out of the launch costs and it was not possible to use new age technologies in
space communication instantly as the same is being used in terrestrial
communications like 3G/4G/5G. Further, the focus is always on reducing the
weight of the satellite as every KG costs big to launch. So it has resulted in
light weight space hardware and machinery which often creates problems in launching
and sometimes entire satellites is destroyed.
So this risk of failure and high
launch costs discouraged the satellite use for mass scale applications like
personal internet. The high cost of a space program has traditionally put it
beyond the reach of most countries. For example, Intelsat, the firm which
currently operates more communications satellites than any other, has been
around for 54 years and has launched just 94.
launch costs discouraged the satellite use for mass scale applications like
personal internet. The high cost of a space program has traditionally put it
beyond the reach of most countries. For example, Intelsat, the firm which
currently operates more communications satellites than any other, has been
around for 54 years and has launched just 94.
But space launch costs are
declining fast and trend is expected to continue and costs will be reduced even
faster which will pave the way for massive growth in space technologies for the
benefit of army, industries and general public as a whole.
declining fast and trend is expected to continue and costs will be reduced even
faster which will pave the way for massive growth in space technologies for the
benefit of army, industries and general public as a whole.
Along with ISRO, Elon musk owned
SpaceX is doing great work in reducing the cost of launch rockets. Its Falcon 9
has reduced the cost of space travel to ISS (International space station) by
almost 20 times at $2,720 per kilogram as compared to $54,500 per kilogram
earlier. And with current focus, it is expected that space launch costs will go
even lower due to focus on reuse of launch vehicle, more demand resulting in
further cost reduction due to economies of scale, advanced engineering and
technical advances. Reduced launch cost will result in heavier, strong,
reliable, and better performing spacecraft to be developed at lower cost and
this will revolutionize every sphere of connectivity. At present , due to
weight issues more reliable and strong models are not being used but low launch
costs will result in better design and materials which will further reduce the
cost of space shuttle as the same can be designed keeping in view the
performance rather than low weight.
SpaceX is doing great work in reducing the cost of launch rockets. Its Falcon 9
has reduced the cost of space travel to ISS (International space station) by
almost 20 times at $2,720 per kilogram as compared to $54,500 per kilogram
earlier. And with current focus, it is expected that space launch costs will go
even lower due to focus on reuse of launch vehicle, more demand resulting in
further cost reduction due to economies of scale, advanced engineering and
technical advances. Reduced launch cost will result in heavier, strong,
reliable, and better performing spacecraft to be developed at lower cost and
this will revolutionize every sphere of connectivity. At present , due to
weight issues more reliable and strong models are not being used but low launch
costs will result in better design and materials which will further reduce the
cost of space shuttle as the same can be designed keeping in view the
performance rather than low weight.
So much work is under way in space
technologies and as per our past experience commercial aspect can really
transform anything and result in advance technologies and cost reductions.
Earlier avatar of satellite internet was mainly for defense and national security
where cost was never a constraint but now as people in remote areas has money
for connectivity and industries are finding novel applications for satellite
internet like IOT the satellite connectivity sector is going to witness radical
innovations and investments to create the economies of scale.
technologies and as per our past experience commercial aspect can really
transform anything and result in advance technologies and cost reductions.
Earlier avatar of satellite internet was mainly for defense and national security
where cost was never a constraint but now as people in remote areas has money
for connectivity and industries are finding novel applications for satellite
internet like IOT the satellite connectivity sector is going to witness radical
innovations and investments to create the economies of scale.
Marine and
Aerospace connectivity: Big growth factors in the near future
Aerospace connectivity: Big growth factors in the near future
Indian Government in Dec-2018 has
allowed internet connectivity for maritime and aerospace sector and this is one
big event which will create the demand for satellite internet and attract more
investments in the sector.
allowed internet connectivity for maritime and aerospace sector and this is one
big event which will create the demand for satellite internet and attract more
investments in the sector.
At present, I think maritime
connectivity has high growth prospectus than aerospace because worldwide this
industry is one of the few which has embraced satellite internet quite early.
Just for a perspective, maritime connectivity in Europe is growing some 20%
yearly and generates revenues of some $1 billion. Actually shipping sector due
to its dynamics is more suitable for satellite internet. First of all, still sea
route accounts for more than 90%of world trade and this is really big!! We
think that now is the age of aviation but shipping is still the cheapest when
it is about global trade.
connectivity has high growth prospectus than aerospace because worldwide this
industry is one of the few which has embraced satellite internet quite early.
Just for a perspective, maritime connectivity in Europe is growing some 20%
yearly and generates revenues of some $1 billion. Actually shipping sector due
to its dynamics is more suitable for satellite internet. First of all, still sea
route accounts for more than 90%of world trade and this is really big!! We
think that now is the age of aviation but shipping is still the cheapest when
it is about global trade.
VSAT provides these giant ships
fast and reliable internet connectivity which is vital for their operation and
safety in the vast sea. Further, internet connectivity is a major factor for
employees while choosing shipping lines for jobs because they are away from
their families for long long time so connectivity is a big factor for them. Same
is true for passengers on cruise ships where internet connectivity is a major
differentiating factor as they need fast and reliable internet for their
entertainment, connectivity and business needs while at sea.
fast and reliable internet connectivity which is vital for their operation and
safety in the vast sea. Further, internet connectivity is a major factor for
employees while choosing shipping lines for jobs because they are away from
their families for long long time so connectivity is a big factor for them. Same
is true for passengers on cruise ships where internet connectivity is a major
differentiating factor as they need fast and reliable internet for their
entertainment, connectivity and business needs while at sea.
Also, fishing sector was one of the
fastest in recent times in using VSAT on their vessels due to crew safety and
welfare, weather mapping, regulations and vessel safety. India also has vast
fishing lines and I think this is going to be one of the first to embrace
satellite internet.
fastest in recent times in using VSAT on their vessels due to crew safety and
welfare, weather mapping, regulations and vessel safety. India also has vast
fishing lines and I think this is going to be one of the first to embrace
satellite internet.
Across globe, maritime VSAT is set
to grow fast and the same thing is true for indian shipping lines also. Global
satellite leasing revenues for maritime applications alone are going to touch
$1 billion by 2026 from the current levels of $500 millions.
For offering maritime connectivity to Indian and foreign vessels sailing into Indian waters, Nelco has already entered into partnership with global satellite communication giant Speedcast International Ltd. As per the deal customers/vessels of the both the companies will be able to connect to the network of both the companies while moving in or out of Indian waters. This is one of the first such partnership for Indian maritime connectivity.
Although there will be competition but i expect Nelco to capture significant share of maritime connectivity just like it did in Oil & Gas and ATM industry in the recent times where it has emerged as one of the fastest growing player. I am expecting Nelco to be very aggressive in its expansions.
to grow fast and the same thing is true for indian shipping lines also. Global
satellite leasing revenues for maritime applications alone are going to touch
$1 billion by 2026 from the current levels of $500 millions.
For offering maritime connectivity to Indian and foreign vessels sailing into Indian waters, Nelco has already entered into partnership with global satellite communication giant Speedcast International Ltd. As per the deal customers/vessels of the both the companies will be able to connect to the network of both the companies while moving in or out of Indian waters. This is one of the first such partnership for Indian maritime connectivity.
Although there will be competition but i expect Nelco to capture significant share of maritime connectivity just like it did in Oil & Gas and ATM industry in the recent times where it has emerged as one of the fastest growing player. I am expecting Nelco to be very aggressive in its expansions.
Similarly, airlines are going to
adopt VSAT technology at fast pace in the near future as just like maritime aerospace
connectivity is proving to be the decisive factor in choosing the airlines by
passengers. Further, the demand will be created by business class passengers
for applications such as emails with large attachments, and video conferencing.
adopt VSAT technology at fast pace in the near future as just like maritime aerospace
connectivity is proving to be the decisive factor in choosing the airlines by
passengers. Further, the demand will be created by business class passengers
for applications such as emails with large attachments, and video conferencing.
There are some concerns over the
rules by Indian authorities that satellite bandwidth can be taken only through
ISRO and this will render satellite bandwidth very costly as even at present satellite
bandwidth charges in India are some 6-7 times higher compared to other parts of
the world. Due to capacity constraint in the satellite communication the
charges are highest in India whereas for broadband the charges are lowest in
India. But I think this was when ISRO was not having bandwidth capacity for
leasing for commercial purposes but now after the launch of 4 giant GSAT satellites
last year there will be no dearth of bandwidth capacity.
rules by Indian authorities that satellite bandwidth can be taken only through
ISRO and this will render satellite bandwidth very costly as even at present satellite
bandwidth charges in India are some 6-7 times higher compared to other parts of
the world. Due to capacity constraint in the satellite communication the
charges are highest in India whereas for broadband the charges are lowest in
India. But I think this was when ISRO was not having bandwidth capacity for
leasing for commercial purposes but now after the launch of 4 giant GSAT satellites
last year there will be no dearth of bandwidth capacity.
So Nelco is still in transition
phase and this year will be even more significant as the focus is on maritime
and aerospace connectivity and big investments will be done.
phase and this year will be even more significant as the focus is on maritime
and aerospace connectivity and big investments will be done.
Continue to hold for further
re-rating.
re-rating.
One last thing I would like to add
is that I got so many queries from worried investors about the fall in the
price of a stock which they have bought at higher price. Some gets desperate
for non performance of their stock over long time. Like, take for example,
Narayana Hrudayalaya and HCG which are one of my favorites in healthcare sector
and I am investing in these stocks regularly for last 2 years but both these
have fallen (although almost all the stocks have fallen some 40-50%) in last one
year. But both have invested quite a lot in building capacities and it’ll take
time for these capacities to reflect in the top and bottom line so for me
current fall is a fantastic opportunity. Same is true for the likes of MCX, Laurus
labs, Mahindra lifespace etc. which are fantastic stocks.
is that I got so many queries from worried investors about the fall in the
price of a stock which they have bought at higher price. Some gets desperate
for non performance of their stock over long time. Like, take for example,
Narayana Hrudayalaya and HCG which are one of my favorites in healthcare sector
and I am investing in these stocks regularly for last 2 years but both these
have fallen (although almost all the stocks have fallen some 40-50%) in last one
year. But both have invested quite a lot in building capacities and it’ll take
time for these capacities to reflect in the top and bottom line so for me
current fall is a fantastic opportunity. Same is true for the likes of MCX, Laurus
labs, Mahindra lifespace etc. which are fantastic stocks.
I see people getting worried when
their stock is not valued, not tracked, not followed by the market and it lies low and down. I
see them talking about PE ratio assigned, traded quantity and coverage by
analysts and when these are missing from their stock they shiver with fear. But
let me tell you one thing-Divine is not divine because of offerings. Offerings
do not transform something into divinity..they can’t even differentiate between a real or fake because mortal
beings offer these as per their expectations. And divine is still divine even if not recognized by mortal beings and
if we can see the wisdom level in our mortal world chances are much higher that
a real divinity is missed by mortals as they always value bunch of
offerings. But a true seeker always yearns for a Lord Buddha sitting alone under
a tree…eyes closed…unnoticed…radiating divine…
their stock is not valued, not tracked, not followed by the market and it lies low and down. I
see them talking about PE ratio assigned, traded quantity and coverage by
analysts and when these are missing from their stock they shiver with fear. But
let me tell you one thing-Divine is not divine because of offerings. Offerings
do not transform something into divinity..they can’t even differentiate between a real or fake because mortal
beings offer these as per their expectations. And divine is still divine even if not recognized by mortal beings and
if we can see the wisdom level in our mortal world chances are much higher that
a real divinity is missed by mortals as they always value bunch of
offerings. But a true seeker always yearns for a Lord Buddha sitting alone under
a tree…eyes closed…unnoticed…radiating divine…
(Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post. Reach me at oscillationss@yahoo.in).
Hi Gurmeet,
Does nelco currently also manufacture satellites?
if not, do you know whether at some point nelco will also be getting into manufacturing of satellites?
In regards to WIP increasing to 100cr, what is the nature of machinery/ equipment required for this?
Thanks,
Sid
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