Dear All, I am regularly receiving messages to share my views on Ukraine-Russia war. First of all I am extremely sorry for not being able to post updates\/studies on this blog for a long time. Actually I am working on something related to stock analysis\/advisory work and hence not getting time for posting the studies as of now. But I will start the same shortly.<\/p>\n
About the war- I am sharing my messages on this which I am regularly sharing with the newsletter club of this blog. Please note that I am not a war or geopolitics expert and my views are constrained\/limited to my very limited knowledge of the subject. Still as the issue was related to our stock Investments so I have shared my views and we will take the investment calls accordingly. So please ignore my views if you find them inaccurate\/illogical (or funny). Ever since the war has been started by Putin I have been feeling that although Russia looks perfect to win the War but some of its calculations- like easy and fast win without much of Ukraine fight back, less harsh economic sanctions as it has some European countries to support it and their reliance on Russian oil\/Gas may not happen as per their calculations and we may see some unexpected and unwanted surprises. So I still feel that Russian mis-calculations can lead this war into something very catastrophic and that\u2019s why even though Russia is our friend I am not supporting this war (As Russia could have easily avoided the war and still emerged victorious achieving objectives). A stronger China emerging from this war is not good for India. The need is to see this war from Indian, Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar.<\/p>\n
\nFrom: Oscillations Date: Sat, 26 Feb, 2022, 13:03
\nSubject: Market fall and the way ahead<\/b><\/p>\n
Dear All, <\/p>\n
Surprisingly Kyiv is still
\nstanding and Ukraine is giving a very tough fight. Their president is acting
\nbrave and he is in Kyiv and leading from the front and even refused US help to
\nevacuate. Ukrainian people are also ready for right. This man was supposed to
\nact like a comedian ( he was a comedian before) but now he is some sort of a
\nglobal hero…and wars are fought on these emotions and motivations. Ukraine
\nwas supposed to surrender on the first day but they still are giving a bloody
\nfight. This man made a mistake earlier for not strengthening borders earlier
\nwhen Russians were at the door…but at that time he was sort of assured of
\nNATO and US support.<\/p>\n
Ukraine never supported India at
\nUN\/kashmir…sold arms to Pakistan. As Russia is our partner and a time tested friend in tough times so India should not Vote against Russia now and should keep a neutral view. But we just hope that their miscalculations shall not hit our interests. Like more than a Russian win India should be more concerned about stronger China emerging out of this war as a reliable Russian partner and china will try madly to replicate Russian style invasions in India and other countries and Russia will support them even if they are against India. So I believe India must have or still been trying to make Russia accept peace. So the need is to see this war from Indian (indirectly not any direct action though), Human and Global peace perspective first rather than Russian perspective alone. Reality is always multi-dimensional and multi-polar. One linear perspective is never absolute. India needs to see this fight from its own perspective first- how it will
\naffect India from Russian angle\/actions and that’s why this war is not good
\nfor India…if Russia wins it is Bad but if it loses then the worst…along
\nwith a chance of a world war any time, India getting hard pressed to choose
\nRussia or others, India getting involved in senseless and dangerous cold war
\nfor a long time, pakistan and China becoming stronger especially when a weak
\nRussia needs their support for its economy. <\/p>\n
The earlier Narrative that Russia
\nis doing this to counter Nato efforts does not look credible at all. Russia was
\nsupposed to hit and weaken Nato but Nato was a dying alliance before this war
\nand present russian actions has in fact reignited the alliance and EU is now
\nfollowing and buying the US narrative of Russian danger. I don’t think that
\nPutin was such a fool to not understand this…that nato will get alert and
\nwill strengthen themselves and their security and expansion. Still he chose the
\nwar and this is what worries me of his true intentions. I feel US and NATO announced earlier not to send armies in order to stop Russia from launching a war…their involvement means sure shot world war so in spite of public humiliation it looks like they have tried to avoid the global war. At that time, Russia was also having an opportunity to leave war plans on a high claiming a win which would have still served its objectives. But sadly for unknown reasons he chose the opposite.<\/p>\n
Russia missed the opportunity on
\nthe first day when Ukraine was not ready for the assault. I think attacking from
\n3-4 positions\/sides may be one reason. Russia is still an expected winner but
\nit has a very bloody nose with large no. of casualties and if the number rises
\nfurther then this will be sort of a humiliation for the very strong Russian
\narmy. This has given time to Ukraine to get their act and supplies together and
\nget arms from other countries and now things will be more dangerous for Russia.
\nThe Russian supply chain is not doing good and it is an old weakness…so there
\nare tanks and vehicles left without fuel…their soldiers are asking for food
\nfrom local people. Most are just kids (18-20 years) pushed\/forced into war.
\nThey are crying after they are captured.<\/p>\n
The Ukrainian people are all
\nready for a fight. Quite the opposite of what Russia was thinking or declaring.
\nRussia\/Putin said that Nazis are ruling Ukraine and Ukraine people will cheer
\nand embrace Russian army…to see themselves getting liberated. So much
\ndisillusion and histeria if Putin really believed in it or was made to believe!!
\nBut this hasn’t happened at all and Ukraine’s president is now a global Hero
\nand if there was even a small contribution of this illusion in their motive
\nbehind the attack then Russia will be in some very difficult time.<\/p>\n
We can assume that Russia will
\nnow become more deadly but the time lost has given Ukraine much time to regroup
\nand also given fire to the protests in Russia which is very bad. Surprise
\nattack element and quick capture of Kyiv and dislodging of the Govt was the key
\nwhich didn’t happen at all as per expectations. Russia is hitting civilian
\ntargets although Russia was supposed to liberate these people earlier who as
\nper its understanding were living under hell. But there are nobody in local
\nbuildings anymore…they were supposed to be in there on the first day of the
\nsurprise attack and subsequent expected control of Ukraine…which never
\nhappened as per calculations. This is why war calculations are always wrong…
\nbecause they are mostly based on underestimating the opponent and
\nover-estimating themselves.<\/p>\n
There are numerous examples in
\nVietnam, Afghanistan that the will\/motivation to fight for freedom is more
\nimportant (for a win) than a strong army and great high tech arms. Even if the
\ninvader succeeds in placing a puppet government the same never succeeds in
\ncontrolling\/running and it always needs support from the invader and is always
\nousted by local people whenever they get stronger. That’s why the Russian
\npuppet govt if they can install one stands no chance and perhaps Russia does or
\nwill realise this. Economic sanctions will hit Russia very hard in spite of whatever plans they are having to counter it. SWIFT ban if happen will be very bad for its economy. I hope that effectiveness of these sanctions may deter China from invading Taiwan but they will intimidate India and chances are very less that any West\/US country will come for our help. So a stronger China (Most probably in case of a Russian Win) may chose first to target India than Taiwan.<\/p>\n
Russian real win was a win without much opposition and blood bath\u2026that Ukrainian people\/other countries don’t have any reaction time and govt\/regime is changed in Ukraine…but this is not what is exactly happening. Russia have to inflict a lot of damage to Ukraine infrastructure and general public. And so their win isn’t going to be that effective…the destruction they have inflicted is not what a supporter does and Russia was posing like the one to their people. The initial plan was perfect to change the regime without people understanding much but with destruction the narrative and scenario has completely changed for Russia…and that’s why chances of any misstep by Russia are higher now. All Russian calculations about getting less harsher sanctions or global outcry or its oil\/gas bargain over EU was dependent upon quick capture of Ukraine but as it has not happened so all calculations are going wrong. Russia must have calculated EU countries like Germany\/Italy\/France supporting less harsher sanctions (like SWIFT ban) and caring for Oil\/Gas supply from Russia but the delay and destruction will force these countries to change their stance and actions. I think these countries earlier supported Russia thinking that Russia will not wage a war after Ukraine agreeing to its demands for not joining Nato but now with so much destruction and fear of a global war these countries will see things differently and may make things very hard for Russia as far as Sanctions\/Oil Gas import\/Helping Ukraine are concerned.So Russia may be in some very tough times.<\/span><\/p>\n About NATO enlargement Issue- So far I have refrained from touching this topic as my knowledge in this respect is very limited. I don’t like reading political documents\/history at all. But still i feel if there was any such assurance then where is the document? Actually here are disagreements among scholars and is highly debatable but the then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev had also confirmed that the Nato expansion topic was never raised. In fact, Russia also (including Putin) wanted to join Nato in 1990s and 2000s. But I feel in case such assurance was indeed given to Russia then they would have wanted to get the same in writing. However, I don\u2019t think that there is any such written assurance available.<\/b> Further, NATO is a formal alliance of countries\/members with written rules so unless all members give their consent for any issue I don’t think anyone from NATO can give such non-expansion assurance and there is no such written formal documents from NATO members also. So we can\u2019t say what was promised and what not. But there is one written document between Russia and Nato- NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997 an agreement on mutual relations, cooperation and security and that NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. But there is no mention of any such Nato expansion stoppage (as far as I can see after a hurried glance at such a boring political document). NATO-Russia Council was also founded in 2002. Nato expanded in 2000s and if there was any such non-expansion assurance then the same would have been invoked by Russia at that time. I feel at that time, Russia was more concerned about leaving Russia out of the crucial decisions (I think like Serbia\/Kosovo) but Russia was never worried that Nato was a threat to it. Also, if both take actions where they pose that they are a danger to each other then it is natural that both would take actions to enhance security (by alliances also) and so in this regard we can\u2019t say that Nato alone is responsible for creating such threat.So common sense says that both Nato and Russia need to sit peacefully and try to find a final solution for the betterment of humanity. We are tired of this nonsense mess.<\/span><\/p>\n Russia does have a strong army Just like most Indians, I also like our Friend Russia and Putin…Russia still plays our songs (They are crazy for Mithun\/Bappi da song “Jimmy Jimmy” from Disco dancer movie and you can still see them using\/enjoying this song in their shows\/remixes…I have so many russian versions with me and they are just fantastic). One version:<\/p>\n
\nbut I think they may not be having relevant ground war experience and this is
\nwhy they are not successful in capturing the territory…they are doing deadly
\nair\/missile attacks but not on the ground. They tried to took one airport near
\nKyiv (Hostomel) but met with heavy Ukraine attack and destruction. This may be their
\nhurried effort or lack of planning I don’t know but their ground work
\ncapabilities are not looking good.<\/p>\n