{"id":1089,"date":"2022-03-03T09:36:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-03T09:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/oscillationss.blogspot.com\/?p=1089"},"modified":"2022-03-03T09:36:00","modified_gmt":"2022-03-03T09:36:00","slug":"russia-ukraine-war-wars-and-mis-calculations-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/?p=1089","title":{"rendered":"Russia-Ukraine War- Wars and Mis-calculations (Part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Please Click here for earlier Post<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Ukraine is still standing; not
\nsure whether on one leg or two but the same is irrelevant in the face of
\ngreat fighting spirit shown by Ukraine. This we can say is a fantastic
\nfight back. When US and NATO declared that they won\u2019t support Ukraine against
\nRussia; Russia was smiling at that time at the pitifulness and helplessness of
\nUkraine and just like Russia everybody discounted them as a loser without any
\nwill left to fight. But these types of events are the reason that history books
\nhave something interesting to tell; these are the events where they don\u2019t need historians
\nto create (Read fabricate) a narrative to generate\/justify\/impose an alternate
\nreality. It would be interesting to see how Russian history books would narrate
\n(read downgrade) this tremendous fight back.<\/p>\n

So as I have explained in the
\nearlier post- Strong and prolonged resistance by Ukrainians have disrupted the
\nRussian plans for regime change and now Russia has to reassess and recalculate
\nthe inflow matrix. Russia and Ukraine are going to have another round of talks
\ntoday although just a week back Russia was not even picking their calls and it
\nhad no interest in talks. So it means Russia has lost because now it can
\nonly destroy Ukraine but can’t win and that’s why we are seeing them talking.
\nThe deal point at the talking table now is- Russia won’t destroy Ukraine and in
\nreturn it will take something from Ukraine and what Ukraine can give is a wild
\nguess because I don’t think Russia’s sole purpose for war was not allowing
\nUkraine to join NATO. As I have shared earlier- I feel Russia doesn’t want
\ndemocracy near its borders and Putin wants to revive the USSR before he is gone
\nfrom this world and he knows he is losing time. Putin wanted to make Russia a big
\neconomic power when he started in 1999, even wanted to Join NATO. But as of now
\nwe know Russia is still far from being a big economic power. Its exports are
\nmainly natural resources (not high value added products). So there are more
\npolitical aspects to the current quagmire than security aspects. Why did (what
\nfear) small eastern European (earlier USSR members) countries join Nato? Whether
\nNATO was really interested in Russian territory (NATO expansion card)? Whether
\nRussia ever counted NATO as a big threat to its security and whether there is
\nany doubt that NATO was on its death bead two months back so as to pose any real
\nthreat to Russia (now revived by Russia)? Anyone who feels there are real\/genuine
\nanswers (Not just speculations) for these questions can understand that things
\nare much more complex than a feeble NATO expansion Card being cited as a reason
\nfor this war. So as of now, I can’t say that Russia was only worried about NATO
\nexpansion and we are not really sure what further destruction he can do (or he is
\nalready having plans). Putin has been successful in creating an image of an unpredictable fellow who can take irrational actions and that’s why west is feeling a bit constrained in its reaction and planning to counter Putin. But I don’t think that he is that irrational fellow because the same recklessness and irrationality is not on display in other spheres of his life and relations with other countries whether it is India or china; Putin has always taken rational decisions when it is with India or china so I think west has to plan their answers treating his as a rational fellow and then this bloody game is a great Game theory stuff- who will take what actions and strategies to counter the others. <\/span><\/p>\n

Russia is our greatest friend but
\nthat doesn’t mean that friends can’t make mistakes or dangerous miscalculations.
\nHowever in geopolitics we don\u2019t raise a finger towards the mistake of friends
\nbecause most of those who want us to raise our finger also have bloody
\nhands and nobody is interested in us and our security. Truth (Realty) is
\nnever linear and one dimensional. In a more logical world, Russia can’t justify
\nits invasion pointing out that the likes of USA have also done it many times.
\nRussia said that Ukraine People are dying under Nazis and that they wanted to
\nsave them; but now they are the ones who are killing them and destroying their
\nschools\/hospitals\/everything so that they can bring them to the table to have a
\ndeal to save their face. So Russia has done something which has weakened it
\n(and India also) and I just hope that a more weakened Russia due to
\neconomic sanctions doesn’t strengthen China too much. A weak Russia will find
\nit tough to support India. So we can’t really be certain in whose interest this
\nwar started- Ukraine, Russia or just Putin but one thing is looking certain
\nthat it will hit Indian interests and that’s what matters the most for an
\nIndian. Rest all becomes secondary in this weird and imperfect world. Pakistan
\nwho once was a fierce Russian enemy and the one responsible for their defeat
\nin Afghanistan and then subsequent division of the USSR is now an ally of
\nRussia. So Russia will ensure its interests before supporting India. The good
\nthing is that India understands that It can’t really count others in its
\nfights; if anyone can join then good but India doesn’t and can’t really expect
\ntoo much from others and that’s why we are neutral and don’t mess with the
\naffairs of others.<\/p>\n

So in a more logical world we can
\nexpect that as Russia really doesn’t have anything to gain by winning or
\ndestroying Ukraine and costs and other economic, political and global
\nimplications are very harsh and hence we could expect both Russia and Ukraine
\nto break a peace deal today or in near term…this is no brainer (in a logical
\nworld). But Putin has shown we can’t really expect him to follow the logic-
\notherwise he doesn’t have anything to justify the war\/invasion. But still I
\nreally feel and hope that by now the ensuing Russian fall might have forced
\nPutin to reassess, recalculate and recalibrate his much bigger and ambitious
\nplans and we can expect some peace coming soon.<\/p>\n

A big positive (feels good to talk about positives amid this catastrophe) I see after any such
\npeace deal is that the World may witness a longer peace period. For a long
\ntime, I have been feeling that some big war may happen at any time in the world
\nbecause there is too much negative energy buildup. We have countries like China
\nwho are ready to create nuisance all the time. We have too many conflicts
\neverywhere. Everybody feels that they are strong enough to destroy the
\nothers…so the likes of China are doing nonsense everywhere in every possible
\nway and world really was\/is like a dangerous volcano waiting to erupt any time.
\nBut this war has shown the fragility of power and the strength of the weak. So
\npeople have seen the destruction they wanted to see for a long time and also understood
\nthe results that in today’s world nobody is really that weak. The war has sort
\nof released the pressurized energy and people should focus on peace. Hence I
\nfeel if both can find a peace deal then we may see the world becoming a
\npeaceful place…in a sense that it has avoided a more serious, destructive and
\nbigger war.<\/p>\n

Although the likes of China may
\nemerge stronger due to a weak Russia and they will try to create nuisance but I
\nfeel a silent Chinese decoupling from the global supply chain is already
\nunderway and then even China won\u2019t be able to withstand economic sanctions if
\nthey try anything similar to Russian misadventure. But India will always be
\nalone to fight China though the QUAD presents some hope because out of sheer foolishness
\nChina (most dictators are foolish or turned foolish over time) has created an
\nenemy out of India and forced India to join hands with USA when China\u2019s main adversary
\nin realizing its global dreams (starting from Taiwan and South china sea) is
\nUSA not India. China doesn\u2019t have any serious conflicts with India which can
\nhit its economic or security considerations. India has even allowed China to
\nget away with Tibetan occupancy. So India was always ready to achieve peace and
\nthat\u2019s where China has miscalculated- to consider the peace willing fellow as
\nweak. India is willing to flex its muscles now (Especially under Modi) and is
\nnot ready to accept any Gunda-gardi. <\/p>\n

But we may see some dramatic realignments
\nhappening in the geopolitical arena in the next 2-3 years. Pakistan will destabilize
\nand we may see it changing parties and the same may end at either loosing POK
\nto India or closing a peace deal with India although before that India needs to
\noust China from POK and so we can see that India-China rivalry may take center
\nstage and Pakistan will be just waiting in the corner and thus we have entered
\na period where Pakistan as an adversary is going out of the way. And that\u2019s why
\nthis Russia Ukraine war is so important for India as this will also direct\/impact
\nChinese strategy. China is predominately an export based economic power (with
\nmany challenges inside) and the people who earn money from others don\u2019t fight
\nwith them. One reason the likes of USA who are big customers for many (They
\nimport big from everywhere) can wreak havoc by stopping\/shifting their imports
\nand as USA is the biggest trading partners for most of the world so it is very
\ntough for anyone (like China) to ignore USA economic sanctions\u2026.USA is the
\nbiggest consumer in this world\u2026a consumer with one very valuable
\ncommodity-Dollar. So India just needs to strengthen its economy and defence
\ncapabilities and creating strong allies and there may come a situation for
\nIndia even to reassess its relations with Russia if the question is to counter
\nChina.<\/p>\n

We will start investing again once
\nsome peace is emerging on the horizon…preferably next week<\/p>\n

(oscillationss@yahoo.in)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Please Click here for earlier Post Ukraine is still standing; not sure whether on one leg or two but the same is irrelevant in the face of great fighting spirit shown by Ukraine. This we can say is a fantastic fight back. When US and NATO declared that they won\u2019t support Ukraine against Russia; Russia was smiling at that time at the pitifulness and helplessness of Ukraine and just like Russia everybody discounted them as a loser without any will left to fight. But these types of events are the reason that history books have something interesting to tell; these…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1089\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}