{"id":1009,"date":"2021-05-13T11:32:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-13T11:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/oscillationss.blogspot.com\/?p=1009"},"modified":"2021-05-13T11:32:00","modified_gmt":"2021-05-13T11:32:00","slug":"tata-coffee-ltd-the-arabica-has-matured-with-intense-flavors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/?p=1009","title":{"rendered":"Tata Coffee Ltd: The Arabica has Matured with Intense Flavors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p><b style=\"text-align: justify;\"><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 16.0pt;\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj90aBRjOeoSs2P40mGE_IibcUuSqEXHE0yVti5sG8k2t6juZ7MudcBl96eLReDhGJXFufNdTOtkSKnvMezicRDjhHKJmWpnr-2VTYUcHaJXKfli9tz01dO5Zg6MTanp8726bwnEdPOeRg\/\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"194\" data-original-width=\"370\" height=\"109\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj90aBRjOeoSs2P40mGE_IibcUuSqEXHE0yVti5sG8k2t6juZ7MudcBl96eLReDhGJXFufNdTOtkSKnvMezicRDjhHKJmWpnr-2VTYUcHaJXKfli9tz01dO5Zg6MTanp8726bwnEdPOeRg\/w184-h109\/image.png\" width=\"184\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\">Grade: TIER 1<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">(This business study of Tata coffee Ltd is taken from the Monthly Newsletter (Jan-21 Edition) of this Blog. The sample of Jan-21 edition was shared at this blog on 28th Jan, 2021.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiwqdXmP3KqPS1HskKitHbPJcpKnmWL-mfPoENtmqu5ygSuqSdR-w_yRwLNp-I3JFGsPSJdnCitMy-EMbqLjbAa5DoIPNEj9sdQ-_1fSrYNWUPt5y2tTzOLgyQv3t7pqsuLMikikpmbcFU\/\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"181\" data-original-width=\"678\" height=\"225\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiwqdXmP3KqPS1HskKitHbPJcpKnmWL-mfPoENtmqu5ygSuqSdR-w_yRwLNp-I3JFGsPSJdnCitMy-EMbqLjbAa5DoIPNEj9sdQ-_1fSrYNWUPt5y2tTzOLgyQv3t7pqsuLMikikpmbcFU\/w508-h225\/image.png\" width=\"508\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; line-height: 115%;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Coffee: A<br \/>\nglobal Drink<\/span><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">1) Coffee truly is a global drink<br \/>\nand a global commodity. However there are disputes related to this being second<br \/>\nmost traded commodity after oil. Many argue that this is not the case as agro<br \/>\ncommodities like Wheat or rice are having much bigger trade value. But I think,<br \/>\nCoffee may be a big trade commodity if we take into account only the<br \/>\ninternational trades as other agro commodities like wheat or rice are mostly<br \/>\ntraded in the production country and international trade may be much lower than<br \/>\nthe total production. Even on standalone basis the value of international trade<br \/>\n(exports) is significant at USD 30 billion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Coffee generally is of two<br \/>\ntypes-Arabica and Robusta. Arabica is of premium quality with half of caffeine<br \/>\nlevels as compared to Robusta. So it has much deeper, smoother and sweeter<br \/>\ntaste with notes of chocolate and hints of other fruits flavor. So Arabica has<br \/>\nmuch higher and intense flavors. Robusta is much stronger in taste with almost<br \/>\ntwice the caffeine levels. So due to higher caffeine levels, it is much bitter<br \/>\nand harsher in taste with notes of grains. Robusta is much easier to cultivate,<br \/>\nhas almost double the yield and less prone to insect attacks (due to high<br \/>\ncaffeine) so all these factors makes it to cost lower. But Arabica beans are<br \/>\nsold at double the price. The instant powdered coffee we find in all the retail<br \/>\nstores is all robusta coffee. In order to drive up the profits, producers are<br \/>\nusing more and more of robusta coffee whether it is instant coffee or a coffee<br \/>\nretail chain.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Across the globe, Arabica<br \/>\naccounts for some 75% production share while Robusta is 25% share. Brazil leads<br \/>\nthe globe with Arabica production (70% of its total coffee production) while<br \/>\nVietnam is the leader in Robusta (95% of its total coffee production). The<br \/>\nglobal coffee production data is as follows:<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiMCV1SH-TJ-XNBPPtuzwZLYc5Q5A155WDz38yvoodn1J15HMuSvSYbOwX02FrHES7Q581iuKHhkDAo5nKxflv1dI4dsMTt7StlEAnWvc2ex_5OBujoATWlZKZYAatN7As3-eg2DNktBq4\/\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"201\" data-original-width=\"491\" height=\"241\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiMCV1SH-TJ-XNBPPtuzwZLYc5Q5A155WDz38yvoodn1J15HMuSvSYbOwX02FrHES7Q581iuKHhkDAo5nKxflv1dI4dsMTt7StlEAnWvc2ex_5OBujoATWlZKZYAatN7As3-eg2DNktBq4\/w525-h241\/image.png\" width=\"525\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"mso-no-proof: yes;\"><v:shapetype coordsize=\"21600,21600\" filled=\"f\" id=\"_x0000_t75\" o:preferrelative=\"t\" o:spt=\"75\" path=\"m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe\" stroked=\"f\"><br \/>\n <v:stroke joinstyle=\"miter\"><br \/>\n <v:formulas><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"sum @0 1 0\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"sum 0 0 @1\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @2 1 2\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @3 21600 pixelWidth\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @3 21600 pixelHeight\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"sum @0 0 1\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @6 1 2\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @7 21600 pixelWidth\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"sum @8 21600 0\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"prod @7 21600 pixelHeight\"><br \/>\n  <v:f eqn=\"sum @10 21600 0\"><br \/>\n <\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:f><\/v:formulas><br \/>\n <v:path gradientshapeok=\"t\" o:connecttype=\"rect\" o:extrusionok=\"f\"><br \/>\n <o:lock aspectratio=\"t\" v:ext=\"edit\"><br \/>\n<\/o:lock><\/v:path><\/v:stroke><\/v:shapetype><v:shape id=\"Picture_x0020_1\" o:spid=\"_x0000_i1032\" style=\"height: 150.75pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 368.25pt;\" type=\"#_x0000_t75\"><br \/>\n <v:imagedata o:title=\"\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\\Users\\gurpreet\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\msohtmlclip1\\01\\clip_image001.emz\"><br \/>\n<\/v:imagedata><\/v:shape><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">2) Europe accounts for some 35%<br \/>\nconsumption with nil production. Europe and North\/South America account for<br \/>\nsome 65% of total global coffee consumption. Europe and USA are fairly stable<br \/>\nin coffee demand so now it is India and China which are the new coffee hot<br \/>\nspots. India\u2019s coffee consumption is concentrated to southern India but off<br \/>\nlate with the growth in coffee retail chains like CCD and Starbucks a strong<br \/>\ncoffee culture is happening in India which is going to enter their houses also.<br \/>\nWith the availability of premium coffee beans and electric roasters and coffee<br \/>\nmakers the home consumption is going to increase significantly in India.<\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6uR_GAUHEa8tyx9RpByF5knHZsQE5F6V5sCRJeFfdjdZ-7YT1a6qB2HeqHN399ax2wYgJRYIOnx0VWdd_Xv5W7TbnjJWBKv-pHG3qQEZId0BfRfY4cY5QqIkq1sfCotcs5UQlF22GNXA\/s2048\/arabica.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1152\" data-original-width=\"2048\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6uR_GAUHEa8tyx9RpByF5knHZsQE5F6V5sCRJeFfdjdZ-7YT1a6qB2HeqHN399ax2wYgJRYIOnx0VWdd_Xv5W7TbnjJWBKv-pHG3qQEZId0BfRfY4cY5QqIkq1sfCotcs5UQlF22GNXA\/s320\/arabica.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>As of now, India exports<br \/>\naround 70% of its production of 3 lac-3.5 lac MT. Karnataka accounts for 85% of<br \/>\nIndian production while the rest comes from Kerala.<\/b> So with rising<br \/>\nconsumption in India, India has sufficient local production to cater to the<br \/>\ndemand. And now the trend is clearly towards coffee consumption in India and<br \/>\nthis will grow much faster than tea. In fact I feel we may see coffee<br \/>\nplantations growing up in India even in the Himalayas where the black pepper<br \/>\nplantations may bend towards coffee. So i think slowly more and more Indians<br \/>\nare moving towards coffee. I like it when in movies and TV Shows they show<br \/>\nactors holding a large coffee mug (though may be empty) because this is subtle<br \/>\nmarketing and it hits the cords more effectively&#8230;though i am not sure whether<br \/>\nit is deliberate or not but if it is not then i think coffee marketing companies<br \/>\nshould think over this seriously.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhX3h4zT-GhAoZItmw7tpoZbS2zgVp5OSs7FFqHrq_iSKmQR4ZWXApmWYWjcXL46SJmYJWuyx0FLCRfQ2Y6_cJUX-pVzTckrRK9lrMLKBbsYmEdqqWZKmm4Dmk4ti7OM1GtdThzPEWz7w0\/s1875\/coppertina-seed-to-cup.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"800\" data-original-width=\"1875\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhX3h4zT-GhAoZItmw7tpoZbS2zgVp5OSs7FFqHrq_iSKmQR4ZWXApmWYWjcXL46SJmYJWuyx0FLCRfQ2Y6_cJUX-pVzTckrRK9lrMLKBbsYmEdqqWZKmm4Dmk4ti7OM1GtdThzPEWz7w0\/s320\/coppertina-seed-to-cup.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">3 Coffee beans (though Coffee<br \/>\nbeans are not really \u201cbeans\u201d but seeds of the fruit of the coffee tree) are<br \/>\njust like any other agriculture commodity with limited pricing power but when<br \/>\nwe move up the value chain the dynamics of this industry changes to one with<br \/>\npremium pricing power with premium brands like that of Starbucks or Cafe Coffee<br \/>\nDay (CCD). So the value proposition changes relevant to the type of producer<br \/>\nlike a plantation company is prone to boom and bust cycles of all commodities<br \/>\nand Coffee is not an exception. Right now, coffee industry is witnessing bust<br \/>\ncycle and prices are trending lower.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">In last 10 years or so, the cost<br \/>\nof inputs for coffee production has increased by some 250% however the prices<br \/>\nhave been increased only by 175% so there is a clear over supply of coffee<br \/>\nbeans in the global market. But coffee production is not that easy to start and<br \/>\nstop. Unlike other commercial crops like Wheat\/rice where crops are planted<br \/>\nevery year the plantations like Tea, Coffee etc. take much longer time to start<br \/>\nproducing and in the subsequent years it is not beneficial to stop production<br \/>\nas massive investments have been made in the initial unproductive years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">It takes four to five years for a<br \/>\ncoffee tree to start producing coffee fruits, while the land on which it grows<br \/>\nwill produce fruit for about 25 years. Hence apart from routine inputs in the<br \/>\nform of fertilizers maximum annual costs are in the form of labour only.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>The likes of Starbucks and<br \/>\nother retail chains brought a revolution in coffee drinking habits of the<br \/>\npeople and this spurred the demand for coffee across the globe especially in<br \/>\nEurope and USA and more and more farmers started cultivating coffee as prices<br \/>\nwere at life time highs. This started in Mid 90\u2019s and culminated around 2007-08<br \/>\nand since then global supply has outpaced demand by fair margin putting<br \/>\npressure on the prices.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the last 4-5 years, Brazil and<br \/>\nVietnam are producing more and more coffee even when international coffee beans<br \/>\nprices are lower. In fact, in dollar terms the cost of producing beans is<br \/>\nhigher than the prices but still the poor farmers of Brazil and Vietnam are<br \/>\nbeing able to support even with these lower prices is only due to the fall in<br \/>\ncurrencies of these countries to Dollar. Fall in currency has enabled these<br \/>\nfarmers to earn something more than their cost of production. However, Brazil<br \/>\nis mainly responsible for this supply glut in the global markets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Brazil produces massive 35% of<br \/>\nthe global production (25% of global export market), so it is the main force<br \/>\nbehind the rise and fall of global coffee prices. No other country has this<br \/>\nmuch power in controlling the coffee prices. Here, Brazilian currency Real has<br \/>\nmajor impact because Real is falling as compared to USD every day and this is<br \/>\nmaking Brazil coffee suppliers to sell more and more coffee even at lower<br \/>\nprices in Dollar terms because they are getting more Real for every ton of<br \/>\ncoffee sold in international markets. The exchange rate of USD to Real was 1.68<br \/>\nReals in 2011 but the same now is 5.3 reals!!! More than 3 times fall. The weak<br \/>\nreal is putting more pressure on the global coffee prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">4) So even when coffee prices are<br \/>\nruling at 13 year ($1 per pound) low Brazil farmers were still able to extract<br \/>\nsomething but the situation is grim across the world for coffee producers.<br \/>\nCoffee producers across the globe are abandoning their coffee farms or turning<br \/>\nto other crops like Cocoa in Colombia which is the supplier of world\u2019s best<br \/>\nquality coffees. So sooner or later coffee production is going to come down and<br \/>\nthis will raise the prices to more reasonable levels.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">But I feel there is another<br \/>\ncrisis which may come with current situation. The countries where coffee<br \/>\nfarmers are abandoning their farms are some of the best quality coffee<br \/>\nproducers like Colombia, Guatemala, Kenya which means this will reduce the<br \/>\nsupply of premium quality Arabica coffee and this may result in very high<br \/>\nprices for premium coffees and very low prices for Robusta coffees.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">But still, even now people can<br \/>\ncreate the demand for premium quality coffee as prices are low. Low quality<br \/>\ncoffee does not make people to consume more coffee but a cup of premium Arabica<br \/>\ncoffee can make people to consume 3 cups in place of 1 cup of coffee and this<br \/>\nmay create or raise the demand for premium coffee which is not within our reach<br \/>\nmainly because of low quality instant coffee used by most people so far. They<br \/>\nare no aware of the fine taste of a premium coffee.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amid all this mayhem in global<br \/>\nmarkets, India is facing shortfall in its coffee production due to pest<br \/>\nattacks, climate issues. But this year is going to be good for Indian coffee<br \/>\nproduction and production will be higher. Also, Global coffee beans prices has<br \/>\nfirmed up recently due to harvesting and supply chain issues faced by farmers<br \/>\nacross the globe due to covid restrictions. So I think we may be near the end<br \/>\nof bust cycle of coffee and prices may start firming up from now on as supply<br \/>\nis going to shrink especially for premium Arabica coffee the prices may go up<br \/>\nmuch higher. So this year should be good for Indian Coffee plantation industry<br \/>\nincluding Tata Coffee Ltd.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">5) But things are different for instant<br \/>\ncoffee or retail coffee chain branded players like Nestle, Bru or Starbucks. As<br \/>\nfor these retailers, the low prices of coffee beans are good as the prices of<br \/>\ntheir end product are driven by suppliers not by consumers as demand is stable<br \/>\nat current price. This is because they are not selling a homogenous commodity<br \/>\nbut a branded product with distinct attributes, quality and taste so producers<br \/>\nare price settlers. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\">Tata coffee<br \/>\nLtd: Indian Coffee story<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata coffee is India\u2019s largest<br \/>\ncoffee producer. Indian coffee production is mainly about small farmers holding<br \/>\nsmall land holdings and instances of large corporate producers like Tata coffee<br \/>\nare very few. Tata coffee deals in coffee in all combinations- it has<br \/>\nplantation business producing raw coffee beans, it has instant coffee<br \/>\nproduction capacities, It has retail presence in USA through Eight O\u2019 clock<br \/>\ncoffee brand, sells instant coffee in India under \u201cTata coffee Grand\u201d band, it<br \/>\nsupplies roasted coffee beans to all Starbucks chains in India, it has also<br \/>\ndeveloped Indian coffee blend for Starbucks chains across the globe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhuik3SvVwMT-_xGPObBOP83gZtbk4Nw70OvGhhE4XL979HPe0mFSmdeQsv-Z8bGfEuOo_H9l-GMGKw33P3MHDm0f3kZowJKkiqN7yasgG0EQGcGop3m1Ry47RJywSvHeNsLWkmt-KS_uo\/\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"383\" data-original-width=\"595\" height=\"323\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhuik3SvVwMT-_xGPObBOP83gZtbk4Nw70OvGhhE4XL979HPe0mFSmdeQsv-Z8bGfEuOo_H9l-GMGKw33P3MHDm0f3kZowJKkiqN7yasgG0EQGcGop3m1Ry47RJywSvHeNsLWkmt-KS_uo\/w517-h323\/image.png\" width=\"517\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata coffee owns around 8000<br \/>\nhectares (around 20000 acre) of Coffee plantations in southern India. If we<br \/>\ntake Rs. 4-5 lac price per acre then the valuation of these coffee plantations<br \/>\nwill be around 800-1000 cr. However, normally prices for Coffee estates are in<br \/>\nthe range of Rs. 10 lac to Rs. 20 lac per acre especially in tourism heavy<br \/>\nareas like Coorg where Tata coffee owns around 11000 acres and this will make<br \/>\nthe valuations anywhere near 2000 cr to 3000 cr!!! And we are still left with<br \/>\n2400 hectares (6000 acres) of tea estates. Recently Tata Coffee was looking to<br \/>\nacquire 12000 hectares of coffee plantations owned by troubled Caf\u00e9 Coffee Day<br \/>\nfor Rs. 1200-1500 cr (while CCD is asking for some 2000 cr) which supports our<br \/>\ncalculation of minimum 1000 cr value for coffee plantations. Tata coffee has<br \/>\nentered into partnership with group hospitality company Indian Hotels for<br \/>\nmanaging its coffee heritage resorts for hospitality business. This also have<br \/>\nthe potential for a good business going forward and this will further establish<br \/>\nthe valuation of its coffee plantations.<\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiL4dahpuEFsg0u4u7TWkA_lAQOHF4-mk5VHUY-ESMROQKqD-HSqtK68lKNZ-5qwh22Tqdh5_J9BL3ZEeisSm1LabvC3XrkLn4OZlliPwxGm1p-XvVufPeBzMB1erFzm-Zc-3bEhMnhaF0\/s1280\/Ama1.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"773\" data-original-width=\"1280\" height=\"254\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiL4dahpuEFsg0u4u7TWkA_lAQOHF4-mk5VHUY-ESMROQKqD-HSqtK68lKNZ-5qwh22Tqdh5_J9BL3ZEeisSm1LabvC3XrkLn4OZlliPwxGm1p-XvVufPeBzMB1erFzm-Zc-3bEhMnhaF0\/w421-h254\/Ama1.jpg\" width=\"421\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjZC5DNtfBEDxZDMjlv7ZSktKPFPV7dyj5_MK4AToalOA91Jjk77nILD8wuZ6RkWXwEHh1D1An_DP-oQ6vSfacTByn8KNJbacjAFPNDmKw0AzLhZWQZTHOd11tHow617vVXur_Mzzs-S7s\/s1920\/Ama.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1080\" data-original-width=\"1920\" height=\"247\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjZC5DNtfBEDxZDMjlv7ZSktKPFPV7dyj5_MK4AToalOA91Jjk77nILD8wuZ6RkWXwEHh1D1An_DP-oQ6vSfacTByn8KNJbacjAFPNDmKw0AzLhZWQZTHOd11tHow617vVXur_Mzzs-S7s\/w422-h247\/Ama.jpg\" width=\"422\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"mso-no-proof: yes;\"><v:shape alt=\"Description: D:\\Analysis\\My Data\\Newsletter\\Articles\\Dec-20-Jan-21\\Ama.jpg\" id=\"Picture_x0020_3\" o:spid=\"_x0000_i1029\" style=\"height: 207pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 369pt;\" type=\"#_x0000_t75\"><br \/>\n <v:imagedata o:title=\"Ama\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\\Users\\gurpreet\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\msohtmlclip1\\01\\clip_image004.jpg\"><br \/>\n<\/v:imagedata><\/v:shape><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"mso-no-proof: yes;\"><v:shape alt=\"Description: D:\\Analysis\\My Data\\Newsletter\\Articles\\Dec-20-Jan-21\\Ama1.jpg\" id=\"Picture_x0020_4\" o:spid=\"_x0000_i1028\" style=\"height: 159pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 368.25pt;\" type=\"#_x0000_t75\"><br \/>\n <v:imagedata o:title=\"Ama1\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\\Users\\gurpreet\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\msohtmlclip1\\01\\clip_image005.jpg\"><br \/>\n<\/v:imagedata><\/v:shape><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Its recent expansion (invested<br \/>\nsome 400 cr for new Instant coffee plant) in Vietnam has started performing<br \/>\nthis year and mainly due to operation of its Vietnam plant <span style=\"mso-spacerun: yes;\"> <\/span>its PAT for the first half is Rs. 59 cr vs 47<br \/>\ncr even during covid crisis which is an indication towards things to come in<br \/>\nthe near future.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\">Merger with<br \/>\nTata Consumer to unlock big Value and Synergy for Both<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata coffee has 50.08% holding in<br \/>\nEight O&#8217;Clock Coffee (ECL) which is a famous American retail coffee brand (Arabica<br \/>\nroast and ground coffee) dates back to 1859. Before Vietnam plant, ECL was<br \/>\naccounting for 60% of the total turnover- 1120 cr out of 1966 cr in 2019-20. ECL\u2019s<br \/>\nnet profit in 2019-20 was 117 cr but due to its 50% share only 58 cr accrue to<br \/>\nTata coffee. But after Vietnam plant, NP will grow much faster as the same is<br \/>\n100% subsidiary of TCL. Its NP for the first half this year is 59 cr and I<br \/>\nthink the same may touch 150 cr this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">CCL Products India Ltd. (Market<br \/>\nvalue 3200 cr, PE 20) is another listed coffee player but it is more of a<br \/>\nwholesale producing instant coffee and does not own plantations but still its<br \/>\nvaluation is same as of TCL. But I think both can\u2019t be compared- Tata coffee<br \/>\nalso has large Instant coffee business but it has much higher brand strength in<br \/>\nboth B2B and B2C. In B2C it has a great brand in Eight O\u2019clock coffee which is<br \/>\ngrowing fast in USA now so it should be valued as an FMCG brand. In 2006, Tatas<br \/>\npaid $ 220m (Rs. 1000 cr as per 2006 exchange rates and 1600 cr as per current<br \/>\nexchange rates for ECL acquisition. Tata coffee contributed 50% of the amount<br \/>\n($110m). At that time, ECL was having revenues of $110m and the same right now<br \/>\nis around $160m so as we can see not that much high growth by ECL. And this may<br \/>\nbe one of the reasons for the underperformance of Tata coffee because biggest<br \/>\nrevenue contributor was not growing that much. But ECL once was top coffee<br \/>\nbrand in USA and Tatas are now working on revamping the brand and supply chain<br \/>\nand this should show the impact pretty soon.<\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjHhyXww8yEkTME9h5jcn6ftshjhPJ1JoX_NBZr4MI6AVGJHw83rCdAgYdOjjScvY2UBNqEUlNU329U-_sZPNdxhdZIt4U6Qr0zqPibNOinY0BHu-PBFwRcX85K6z5s6eAZgpATOwhQkfU\/s648\/eightoclocklineup.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"262\" data-original-width=\"648\" height=\"256\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjHhyXww8yEkTME9h5jcn6ftshjhPJ1JoX_NBZr4MI6AVGJHw83rCdAgYdOjjScvY2UBNqEUlNU329U-_sZPNdxhdZIt4U6Qr0zqPibNOinY0BHu-PBFwRcX85K6z5s6eAZgpATOwhQkfU\/w493-h256\/eightoclocklineup.jpg\" width=\"493\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">I have not done its valuation<br \/>\nexercise comprehensively but 50% stake should value around 1500 cr Rs. (at 20-25<br \/>\nPE). 1500 cr value for 50% stake in ECL is still at the lower end as it would<br \/>\nmake for just 2 times returns for Tata coffee in ECL in last 14 years. US is<br \/>\nstill and will be the biggest coffee market globally (70% consumption at home<br \/>\nwhich augurs well for ECL) and that\u2019s why ECL is critical to Tata group and<br \/>\nthey are restructuring its business in USA and this year the growth is good in<br \/>\nECL and looks like the strategy is working. Total Income of Eight O&#8217;Clock<br \/>\nCoffee Company for the Six months ended September 30, 2020 was USD 87 .81<br \/>\nMillion compared to USD 76.48 Million for the corresponding Six months of the<br \/>\nprevious year. <span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">Further, I think as demand for<br \/>\npremium coffee will rise in India for home consumption there is a possibility<br \/>\nthat Tata may introduce ECL in Indian market. And I feel Tata should make the<br \/>\nfirst move rather than waiting for other brands like Nestle. Recently, many<br \/>\nbrands have started offering premium coffee beans in India for home consumption<br \/>\nlike Blue Tokai which are witnessing high demand. Though Tata Coffee has also<br \/>\nintroduced their single estate coffee brand \u201cSonnet\u201d but still I feel ECL is an<br \/>\nestablished brand and have time tasted blends for USA market and these blends<br \/>\nshould do well in India markets with some tweaking for Indian tastes (though I<br \/>\nthink there is nothing like Indian taste in Indian coffee as of now). ECL can<br \/>\nbenefit from vast supply chain and distribution reach of Tata consumer which is<br \/>\nway bigger than ECL in USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">Balance<br \/>\n50% holding in ECL is with Tata consumer which is also the holding company of<br \/>\nTata coffee (57% holding) and that\u2019s why I feel Tata coffee may be merged with<br \/>\nTata consumer and at that time there will be value unlocking for plantations of<br \/>\nmore than 25000 acre (coffee and Tea) which are not valued much in the current<br \/>\nvaluation but for merger they should get the valuation of around 1000 cr. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata consumer is already doing<br \/>\nthe distribution and marketing for \u201cTata coffee Grand\u201d brand owned by Tata coffee<br \/>\nLtd. Tata group is on a great value accretive restructuring path simplifying<br \/>\nownership, supply chain and management structure and there is no reason for<br \/>\nTata consumer to leave Tata coffee alone when they have already restructured<br \/>\nthe FMCG brands of Tata chemicals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\">Tata<br \/>\nStarbucks- Emerging Giant of Indian retail coffee <\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata coffee is the exclusive<br \/>\nsupplier of coffee beans to Tata-Starbucks (50:50 JV) in India and has also<br \/>\nstarted supplying the same for their global business and this is going to make<br \/>\na mark for Indian coffee blends in the global market just like Indian single<br \/>\nmalt whiskies by Amrut\/Paul John\/Rampur. Tata Coffee has revamped its<br \/>\nplantations into 8000 micro grids to cater to the premium beans requirements of<br \/>\nStarbucks. Growth of Starbucks in India means growth for Tata coffee. <span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">It is for the first time in the history of Starbucks that<br \/>\nthey are procuring coffee from the roasting facility owned by its partner. <\/span>This<br \/>\nshows the expertise of Tata coffee in producing premium quality coffee. This<br \/>\nlocalization also saves the costs for Tata-Starbucks as they are not required<br \/>\nto import costly coffee. Coffee drinking in India is moving beyond south Indian<br \/>\nstates and coffee retail brands are going to see big growth in the future and<br \/>\nStarbucks should be the leader of the pack. Tata-Starbucks turnover last year<br \/>\nwas 540 cr and it is already profitable and Starbucks is very aggressive about<br \/>\nIndian market growth.<\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitNsnLQ4uGIUWkfPBpRXs-OW-D7Jcv4t4_zmJ7-1UyyU2JLVS1GtvNhUh5BCVyB6a4MkeyBiK14XVB0aosjyMpTibXtIcz__puyQuH-xIbJEbcK6d3Yh_6v8KruRNAJPWvo6baI5J3idQ\/s640\/star.jpg\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"468\" data-original-width=\"640\" height=\"308\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitNsnLQ4uGIUWkfPBpRXs-OW-D7Jcv4t4_zmJ7-1UyyU2JLVS1GtvNhUh5BCVyB6a4MkeyBiK14XVB0aosjyMpTibXtIcz__puyQuH-xIbJEbcK6d3Yh_6v8KruRNAJPWvo6baI5J3idQ\/w529-h308\/star.jpg\" width=\"529\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"mso-no-proof: yes;\"><v:shape alt=\"Description: D:\\Analysis\\My Data\\Newsletter\\Articles\\Dec-20-Jan-21\\star.jpg\" id=\"Picture_x0020_9\" o:spid=\"_x0000_i1026\" style=\"height: 146.25pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 218.25pt;\" type=\"#_x0000_t75\"><br \/>\n <v:imagedata o:title=\"star\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\\Users\\gurpreet\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\msohtmlclip1\\01\\clip_image007.jpg\"><br \/>\n<\/v:imagedata><\/v:shape><\/span><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\"><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Indian coffee market is still in<br \/>\nits infancy just like China. Just like India, China was a country of tea<br \/>\ndrinkers. But Starbucks happened to china in 1999. Starbucks has succeeded in<br \/>\nblending coffee culture into Chinese culture and it has done the same by<br \/>\nrelentless attention on details in creating Starbucks a place where Chinese<br \/>\npeople love to enjoy best coffee, sit, relax and enjoy with their friends.<br \/>\nStarbucks has focused on integrating local customs and designs in its cafes. Starbucks<br \/>\nwere aware of the growing middle class in China and its powerful impact on<br \/>\ndemand and need for new recreational places. Coffee is a western drink but young<br \/>\nChinese considers coffee culture sophisticated and to influence. It is normal<br \/>\nfor people in China these days to have business meetings and even job<br \/>\ninterviews at Starbucks. So with great execution, Starbucks has been successful<br \/>\nin creating its cafes as place to go after home and office. The same thing<br \/>\nhappened in Japan which was another tea drinking nation and now a big coffee<br \/>\nnation with Starbucks having more than 1000 stores. Starbucks is having some 4400<br \/>\nstores in China, the largest outside USA and it is betting big on China as next<br \/>\nbig market after USA. Its China revenues are around 6000-7000 cr which are only<br \/>\ngoing to grow bigger in the next 2-3 years as Starbucks is looking to double<br \/>\nthe store count.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">So India is going to follow the<br \/>\nfootsteps of Japan and China in adopting the coffee culture and Tata coffee as<br \/>\na supplier of premium coffee beans will be one of the major beneficiary of this<br \/>\nshift. Starbucks has worked out a great marketing strategy for Chinese market<br \/>\nand developed and created products keeping in view the Chinese tastes. Chinese<br \/>\nare much more serious about their culture and family value and social status.<br \/>\nSo Starbucks did some great marketing there- No aggressive Coffee promotions to<br \/>\navoid being treated as a threat to their tea-culture, blended Coffee culture<br \/>\nwith tea culture initially, engaging annual family programs etc. Starbucks is a<br \/>\ngiant success in creating great and innovative coffee products and it is doing<br \/>\nthis for decades. Starbucks had partnered with local partners for China market<br \/>\nin order to address the complexity of massive china market. The same thing it<br \/>\nhas done for Indian market which is going to as massive as China and after a<br \/>\nlot of search it partnered with India\u2019s most trusted and iconic brand Tata. The<br \/>\nselection of Tata itself shows the brand strength, trust and customer loyalty<br \/>\nit has in Indian market. If you ask any Value investor- China was not a market<br \/>\nwhere Starbucks could achieve any sort of success but with their superior<br \/>\nexecuting skills they have made it their biggest outside USA and may one day<br \/>\neven bigger than USA. So I have no doubts that they will do the same in Indian<br \/>\nmarket also.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of now, Tata-Starbucks operates<br \/>\n200 stores in India across 13 cities. Tata\u2019s stake is owned by Tata consumer<br \/>\nproduct ltd (TCPL) and as of now they have invested around 300 cr in the JV.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">But if you ask me the creation of<br \/>\na coffee culture by Starbucks in India will have multi-dimensional impact on<br \/>\ncoffee demand in India not just for retail chains of Starbucks but also for<br \/>\nhome consumption and Tata coffee is going to be the major beneficiary here also<br \/>\nas it is focusing on developing premium Coffee products for Indian markets.<br \/>\nRecently it has launched premium single estate retail coffee brand \u201cSonnet\u201d<br \/>\nwhich is available online. <\/p>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEimfqrFki3UO20CAEDlbho3RsPWf4cWDxAPaaxE0u6Y8IWLMfKDTSyGH3RhmO5t5bM8kab7Ns8OtFCLk6bc_Sst0L6uv-0EnHJqsu9HpHIJ5hOFzwcBcoDeG0qNxhz4ICz_MQhqPLFDBh8\/s700\/sonnets-press.png\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"400\" data-original-width=\"700\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEimfqrFki3UO20CAEDlbho3RsPWf4cWDxAPaaxE0u6Y8IWLMfKDTSyGH3RhmO5t5bM8kab7Ns8OtFCLk6bc_Sst0L6uv-0EnHJqsu9HpHIJ5hOFzwcBcoDeG0qNxhz4ICz_MQhqPLFDBh8\/w466-h267\/sonnets-press.png\" width=\"466\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"mso-no-proof: yes;\"><v:shape alt=\"Description: D:\\Analysis\\My Data\\Newsletter\\Articles\\Dec-20-Jan-21\\sonnets-press.png\" id=\"Picture_x0020_6\" o:spid=\"_x0000_i1025\" style=\"height: 195pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 341.25pt;\" type=\"#_x0000_t75\"><br \/>\n <v:imagedata o:title=\"sonnets-press\" src=\"file:\/\/\/C:\\Users\\gurpreet\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\msohtmlclip1\\01\\clip_image008.png\"><br \/>\n<\/v:imagedata><\/v:shape><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata Coffee being an integrated<br \/>\ncoffee player is going to be a major beneficiary of coffee industry growth in<br \/>\nIndia as it can restructure its product offerings as per the requirements of<br \/>\nthe market like it can shift the export of its premium quality coffee beans to<br \/>\nmeet the higher demand of Starbucks outlets in the future. For any premium<br \/>\ncoffee retail brand like Starbucks the supply of uniform premium quality beans<br \/>\nis the foremost requirement and Tata coffee can maintain this supply through<br \/>\npremium coffee produced in its coffee plantations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;\">Troubled Cafe<br \/>\nCoffee day- An opportunity for Tatas to acquire assets and Relative strength<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Troubled Cafe Coffee Day<br \/>\nenterprise is looking to sell various assets\/businesses to pay off the debt.<br \/>\nPromoter family is also selling their assets to reduce the debt at promoter<br \/>\nlevel. Tatas are interested in their Coffee plantations spanning 12000 hectares<br \/>\nand Coffee vending machine business. Talks were at advanced stage and are<br \/>\ntaking time due to issues related to valuations and some creditors asking for<br \/>\nmore. I think we will see something on this very soon&#8230; may be within a month<br \/>\nor so. Tata coffee and Tata consumer will do anything to acquire these assets.<br \/>\nThe acquisition of coffee plantations will make Tata coffee a substantial<br \/>\nplayer in Indian coffee beans market and it will be an integrated coffee<br \/>\nplayer- all the way from plantations to retail sale and coffee chains.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">Some<br \/>\nanalyst friends have questioned this asset heavy approach but I think owned<br \/>\nplantations are a key to ensure and control the coffee bean quality and Tata<br \/>\ncoffee is eyeing premium-ness in its products now. India is going to witness a<br \/>\ncoffee culture at home and out of home and this will create massive demand for<br \/>\nquality coffee beans and that\u2019s why having its own plantations will ensure the<br \/>\nsupply without any worry of the beans prices. Now, Tata coffee wants to be<br \/>\nestablished as a premium brand. Brand strength and loyalty in B2B is more<br \/>\nstrong and relationships like supplier of Starbucks are tough to create and are<br \/>\nlong lasting (Just check the valuation of recent IPO of Mrs Bectors).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tata coffee was in restructuring<br \/>\nmode for last 5-6 years and the stock has not performed at all during this<br \/>\nperiod. It is still available at 2014 valuations. So it has gone nowhere. I<br \/>\nthink as of now, market has valued it as some sort of plantation company but<br \/>\nthe share of plantation business and its impact on NP has come down to great<br \/>\nextent in the last 4-5 years and now it is more of coffee product company so<br \/>\nits re-rating catalyst are just nearing now and it may get the re-rating quite<br \/>\nfast just like the same has happened in many tata group stocks- Tata consumer, Tata<br \/>\nMotors, Tata communications, Tata chemicals and Tata power (we hold all). <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">I think things are nicely shaped<br \/>\nfor Tata coffee to witness a high growth phase and at a valuation of 2000 cr I<br \/>\nthink market is not valuing its various businesses adequately.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;\">Summary of Analysis levels Involved in the<br \/>\nstudy of Tata coffee:<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">1.<br \/>\nLevel 1 (Lower relative valuation)<\/span><\/u><\/b><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\"> &#8211;<br \/>\nCurrent stock price is not reflecting the value of its coffee and tea<br \/>\nplantations, value of its overseas subsidiary Eight O\u2019clock Coffee.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">2.<br \/>\nLevel 2 ( Industry level growth and restructuring)<\/span><\/u><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">&#8211;<\/span><\/b><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\"> Tata coffee is<br \/>\ngoing to see massive growth in its premium coffee beans and instant coffee<br \/>\nbusiness due to growth of coffee demand in India both for home consumption and<br \/>\nCoffee retail chains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><u><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\">3.<br \/>\nLevel 3 (Forecasting of management decisions which may result in massive future<br \/>\ngrowth and value unlocking)<\/span><\/u><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\"> &#8211;<\/span><\/b><span style=\"color: #0000cc;\"> (a) Merger of Tata coffee with Tata consumer products<br \/>\nLtd (b) Acquisition of Coffee plantation assets of CCD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #7f6000;\"><b><span style=\"background-color: white;\">(<\/span><span style=\"background-color: white;\">This study is a business analysis of Tata Coffee Ltd. Views are personal and should not be taken as a recommendation for buying or selling a stock. Stock markets are inherently risky so kindly do your own Due Diligence before investing. I am not a certified Sebi Analyst and holding the shares discussed in this Post. <\/span>This business study of Tata coffee Ltd is taken from the Monthly Newsletter (Jan-21 Edition) of this Blog. For subscribing to the monthly Newsletter r<span style=\"background-color: white;\">each at oscillationss@yahoo.in).<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Grade: TIER 1 (This business study of Tata coffee Ltd is taken from the Monthly Newsletter (Jan-21 Edition) of this Blog. The sample of Jan-21 edition was shared at this blog on 28th Jan, 2021.) Coffee: A global Drink 1) Coffee truly is a global drink and a global commodity. However there are disputes related to this being second most traded commodity after oil. Many argue that this is not the case as agro commodities like Wheat or rice are having much bigger trade value. But I think, Coffee may be a big trade commodity if we take into account&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1009\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oscillations.in\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}